Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts
Showing posts with label New York Mets. Show all posts

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Analyzing The Market For Roy Halladay


by Puneet Singh

Here's my theory in life: It's better to spend a lot of money once to get the best quality thing available as opposed to getting things relatively cheap and having to worry about it every so often. I use this for clothes and electronic gadgets amongst other things.


The same should be applied to baseball and sports: trade for a known and established commidity as opposed to going out and signing rubbish.

Three examples:

First: the Yankees opting not to trade for Johan Santana because they felt Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy could establish into solid number two to three-esque starters. While Hughes is starting to shown signs of dazzle this year, lets be honest; who wouldn't want Johan?

Second: The case of Oliver Perez and the pennies seperating him from Derek Lowe. The Met's didn't want to give Derek Lowe that extra year or extra million dollar a year. So he was more than happy to sign with the Braves.

My Final Example brings me to the hottest name on the trading block in the MLB in awhile: Roy Halladay.

Halladay IF traded is expected to command a young grade A arm, a grade A middle infielder, at a grade B outfielder and then either another outfielder, pitcher, middle infielder or corner infielder.

That is truly the king's ransom, but ask yourself this; if your team is a known winner and wants to be a contender, would you give away four players who you do not know would be stars tomorrow to land a pitcher who is a 90% lock to win every start he goes in and has been dominating the AL East for the last seven years, who will still be under your control next year?

Take a look at a few teams and what they could offer in return for Roy Halladay:

Angels

Known around the majors to have one of the deepest if not THE deepest prospect pool, the Angels offer would be something like this:

SP Ervin Santana, 1B/3B/SS Brandon Wood, C/1B Hank Conger and SP Jordan Walden.

Santana gives them a Grade B pitcher with the potential to be an A when fully healthy, Wood is a potential .280 3o HR 100 RBI talent wasting his time in the minors, Conger while not the best of catching prospects defensively is the best contact hitter in the Angels minor league setup while Jordan Walden was their number two ranked pitcher behind the late Nick Adenhart in the minors.

By giving up Santana for Halladay, the Halo's would have a rotation of Lackey-Halladay-Saunders and Jered Weaver, giving them a strong rotation for not only this year but next. Halladay becomes even more important because Lackey can hit the market as a free agent this offseason, possibly leaving Anaheim.

Red Sox

While the Sox don't possess the deepest of talent pools, what they have really stands out.

SP Clay Bucholz, SS Jed Lowrie, and 1B Lars Anderson.

These kids stand out HEAVILY. Hence the need for the Sox only to give up three pieces as opposed to four. Bucholz has the making of a number two starter while Lowrie has a slick glove and a nice bat. Lars Anderson is a power machine with a huge ceiling for home runs.

Given the state of the Red Sox with Dice-K, adding Halladay gives them a rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Wakefield-Lester. When you have those four and Halladay as a workhorse, it doesn't matter who you throw out as your fifth starter; in a five game series it probably won't go that far.

Phillies

From what I hear the Phils are the favorites right now to get Halladay. Guess that means they have something the Blue Jays would want.

SS Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco, OF Michael Taylor and either SP JA Happ or SP Antonio Bastardo.

Donald is only sitting in the minors because the Phils will be unable to move J-Roll who isn't the same J-Roll from three years ago. Carrasco is easily the gem of the minor league arms and Taylor is drawing comparasions to Ryan Howard and a move to 1B may be imminent. Both Bastardo and Happ have shown they have the stuff to hang in the majors.

Getting Halladay would give the Phils a true number one. I don't care what people say or think, Cole Hamels is NOT the Cole Hamels of LAST YEAR. Line Halladay in front of Hamels-Blanton-Moyer and again you have a horse in the front followed by grinders in Hamels and Blanton and the ageless wonder Jamie Moyer.

Mets

Oh the New York Muts, New York Mess, whatever you'd like to call them at this moment. No one could use Halladay more than the Metropolitans. They've got the pieces to do it.

OF Fernando Martinez, SP/RP Bobby Parnell, SP Jon Niese and 1B Ike Davis.

Interesting group. Martinez has been so-so in the majors thus far and hurting his stock in the process. Parnell has proved time and time again so far that he has the stuff to be a big time arm in the majors. Same goes for Niese who's been above average in the spot starts that he's made for the Mets. Ike Davis is a legit threat to hit 35 homeruns year in and year out.

This is a no brainer. Halladay-Johan would be pitching on three days rest. And no, I'm not kidding.

Cardinals

Clearly my darkhorse for the Halladay sweepstakes. By far not only the classiest organization in baseball but also a great and highly respectable fan base. Outside of that, they also have whatever it would take to get Halladay. Question becomes, are they willing to give up that much?

OF Colby Rasmus, 3B Brett Wallace, C Bryan Anderson, SP Jaime Garcia and SP Jason Motte.

This scenario involves keeping Adam Wainwright out of the equation. Card's management already labeled him along with Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter as "untouchables."

The top five prospects in the Cards system. Yes it would depleat them long term, but if they could sign Halladay to a four year extension, it would be more than worth it. Rasmus is showing why he's in the majors, Wallace is waiting for Troy Glaus to go so he can officially take over. Anderson, Garcia and Motte all figure to be apart of the Cards equation by no later than 2011.

Halladay-Carpenter-Wainwright would give the Card's a 3-4 year window to dominate the NL Central.

Cubs

Oh let me be frank; Cubs could get him Sabathia, Lincecum and whomever and they still won't win the World Series. Well...not so sure about that one.

SP Randy Wells, SP Rich Harden, 3B Josh Vitters, 1B/OF Jake Fox.

Fox is a power threat but I think he's Elrubio Durazo 2.0 (another throwback name for everyone). Wells is a young arm with a HUGE upside. Same goes for Vitters with his bat. Here's a odd one in though; Rich Harden. Harden is of Canadien descent and would love a chance at home. Problem is, he's from Victoria in British Columbia....the other side of Canada. If they can workout an extension for him it would be a win. If they let him walk as a Class A free agent this offseason, its an even bigger win for the Jays.

Halladay-Zambrano-Lily-Dempster would form a nice quartet. The Cubs are out of the race this year, but this would be an excellent start for the next season.

Yankees

Oh how can a rumor mill surronding a big star be a rumor mill without involving the good ol' Yanks. As weird as this sounds compared to years passed, the Yanks have prospects to make a deal happen.

SP Phil Hughes, SP Joba Chamberlin, OF Austin Jackson.

Again the case of three. Not only are Hughes and Chamberlin struttin' their stuff in the majors, they're doing it decently; nothing a little age and bumps won't teach them. Austin Jackson commonly known as A-Jax is the 35th best prospect in all of baseball. That speaks for itself. Has the potential to be a combination of both Upton brothers.

Sabathia-Halladay-Burnett-Pettite-Wang. Shouldn't really have to worry about number five, when you have two workhorses up front.


Final Thought: If the Sox want him, they can get him. It's that simple. My favorites to land him are the Sox, Yanks and Phils in that order. Dark Horse looming though: St. Louis.

It'll be interesting few weeks coming up. If Halladay isn't moved by then, expect him to be on every team's Christmas wishlist during the Fall meetings.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Mets Hot Stove




Puneet Singh

Now I'm a diehard Yankee fan and bleeeeeeeeeeed Pinstripe Blue and White. But I respect the Mets, and thoroughly enjoy their youth trident of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright. But let's be honest: with the way things are going for the Metropolitans, they need to break down this trio and move one of them to address the issues caused by Omar Minaya's terrible offseason pitching signings and the injury to Carlos Delgado. Now I'm just throwing out some plausible scenario's for the Mets that have been talked about before in the past. Some don't involve the "trio" while some will. The most likely to be moved in Reyes, and the least likely is Beltran(his contract is too big and it would be surprising to find a team what would want that contract and offer too many players for him.)

Mets trade Jose Reyes and Bobby Parnell to the Tampa Bay Rays for Carl Crawford, Jason Bartlett and Matt Garza.

This would help the Mets in every way imagineable. Murphy can now play 1st especially given that Delgado is injured, Crawford replaces Reyes at the top of the order, Bartlett replaces him in the field and Garza helps the Mets rotation. Just think about this for a second: Bartlett's defense is on par if not BETTER than Reyes' and Crawford is a more fundamentality sound hitter with outstanding speed and offers great defense in LF. Garza is a blossoming ace, who can compliment Johan at the top of the rotation. Personally I think Reyes has hit a wall. It almost seems like he doesn't care to give it his all anymore and his temper tantrums and pouty attitude scream childish. It may be time for this marriage to head in a different direction.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 40%
Winter Meetings: 70%

Mets trade John Niese, Fernado Martinez, Bobby Parnell, Eddie Kunz and Luis Castillo(eating his entire salary) to the San Diego Padres for Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez.

The Mets have a higher likehood of of acquiring just Gonzalez alone, but if the Padres decide that its fully time to rebuild, they'd be hardpressed to find a richer package than this. The Red Sox unlikeliness to part with Lars Anderson Clay Bucholz and Justin Masterson would prevent the Sox from landing the duo. Gonzalez is an amazing left handed hitter and above average and underrated fielder. At age 27, he is just now coming into his own and with 2 consecutive good power season under his belt and now on his way to his 3rd, he'd be a great add to the Mets lineup for short term and longterm, seeing that Delgado's contract is only for this year. Peavy to this deal can't be stressed enough. With Peavy and Johan at the front of the Mets rotation, they would UNDOUBTADELY be the best 1-2 duo in all of the majors, topping Haren-Webb in Arizona, Lackey-Santana in Anaheim, Beckett-DiceK in Boston and Ray's trio of Garza-Shields-Kazmir. By getting Niese, F-Mart, Parnell, and Kunz, the Padres would rebuild their pitching staff heavily and add a Carlos Gomez clone in F-Mart.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 20%
Winter Meetings: 60%

Mets trade John Niese, Luis Castillo, Eddie Kunz and Fernando Martinez to the Indians for Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.

Cliff Lee isn't as bad as his numbers persist this year. And Victor Martinez seems to have found his stroke from two years ago. Martinez can play both 1B and Catcher so he holds value to him. Mets can use him until Delgado comes back and then move him behind the plate. Lee is good for 15 to 17 wins which would help this rotation out greatly. If the Mets don't get this done within the coming months, the likelihood of it happening becomes less and less likely.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 30%
Winter Meetings: 10%

Mets trade John Niese and Luis Castillo(salary eaten again) to the Baltimore Orioles for Aubrey Huff.

Huff plays 1B, 3B and LF/RF. He can be moved around anywhere in the field and offers a great bat to the lineup given Delgado's injury. When and IF Delgado comes back, they could move Huff to one of the corner OF spots or give Wright the occasional dayoff if needed. Another case though like the Indians scenario; aimed more at helping in the immediate future rather than longterm.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 50%
Winter Meetings: 10%

Mets trade David Wright to the Los Angelas Angels for Brandon Wood, Ervin Santana and Kendry Morales.

The Angels have all the tools necessary to make this trade. A glaring need for the Angels and the parts the Mets would want. Morales plays the corner OF spots and 1B. Brandon Wood is a hot prospect for 3B and SS. Ervin Santana, has cemented his spot as one of the elite pitchers in today's game. This is aimed more towards long term case. IE; if the Mets fail to make the playoffs again and come to the realization that moving Wright could help their future.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 10%
Winter Meetings: 60%

Mets trade Jose Reyes, David Wright and Ryan Church to the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay and Vernon Wells.

This isn't a joke. It's well know that outside of Johan, the best pitcher out this is the "Doc" Roy Halladay. With the Blue Jays beginning to worry about they will lose him after the next year, you have to believe they will start entertaining offers. This is. I repeat. THIS IS THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. By that I mean, Met's have an epic meltdown like the last two years and in September both Wright and Reyes have terrible months. You would have the think the Blue Jays would give serious thought to this. They would instantly upgrade their left side of the infield with 2 All-Star players. The Blue Jays also have enough young pitching with Marcum, Ray, Richmond, Cecil all still in their ranks. With Halladay and Johan in the front of the rotation, the Mets could have Livan Hernandez, Orlando Hernandez and Wilson Alvarez and still have a strong pitching staff with those two in the front.
Likelihood of this trade happening:
Midseason Trading Deadline: 0%
Winter Meetings: 40%

and remember: IT AIN'T TRICKIN IF YA GOT IT!