Analyzing The Market For Roy Halladay

by Puneet Singh

Here's my theory in life: It's better to spend a lot of money once to get the best quality thing available as opposed to getting things relatively cheap and having to worry about it every so often. I use this for clothes and electronic gadgets amongst other things.

The same should be applied to baseball and sports: trade for a known and established commidity as opposed to going out and signing rubbish.

Three examples:

First: the Yankees opting not to trade for Johan Santana because they felt Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy could establish into solid number two to three-esque starters. While Hughes is starting to shown signs of dazzle this year, lets be honest; who wouldn't want Johan?

Second: The case of Oliver Perez and the pennies seperating him from Derek Lowe. The Met's didn't want to give Derek Lowe that extra year or extra million dollar a year. So he was more than happy to sign with the Braves.

My Final Example brings me to the hottest name on the trading block in the MLB in awhile: Roy Halladay.

Halladay IF traded is expected to command a young grade A arm, a grade A middle infielder, at a grade B outfielder and then either another outfielder, pitcher, middle infielder or corner infielder.

That is truly the king's ransom, but ask yourself this; if your team is a known winner and wants to be a contender, would you give away four players who you do not know would be stars tomorrow to land a pitcher who is a 90% lock to win every start he goes in and has been dominating the AL East for the last seven years, who will still be under your control next year?

Take a look at a few teams and what they could offer in return for Roy Halladay:

Angels

Known around the majors to have one of the deepest if not THE deepest prospect pool, the Angels offer would be something like this:

SP Ervin Santana, 1B/3B/SS Brandon Wood, C/1B Hank Conger and SP Jordan Walden.

Santana gives them a Grade B pitcher with the potential to be an A when fully healthy, Wood is a potential .280 3o HR 100 RBI talent wasting his time in the minors, Conger while not the best of catching prospects defensively is the best contact hitter in the Angels minor league setup while Jordan Walden was their number two ranked pitcher behind the late Nick Adenhart in the minors.

By giving up Santana for Halladay, the Halo's would have a rotation of Lackey-Halladay-Saunders and Jered Weaver, giving them a strong rotation for not only this year but next. Halladay becomes even more important because Lackey can hit the market as a free agent this offseason, possibly leaving Anaheim.

Red Sox

While the Sox don't possess the deepest of talent pools, what they have really stands out.

SP Clay Bucholz, SS Jed Lowrie, and 1B Lars Anderson.

These kids stand out HEAVILY. Hence the need for the Sox only to give up three pieces as opposed to four. Bucholz has the making of a number two starter while Lowrie has a slick glove and a nice bat. Lars Anderson is a power machine with a huge ceiling for home runs.

Given the state of the Red Sox with Dice-K, adding Halladay gives them a rotation of Beckett-Halladay-Wakefield-Lester. When you have those four and Halladay as a workhorse, it doesn't matter who you throw out as your fifth starter; in a five game series it probably won't go that far.

Phillies

From what I hear the Phils are the favorites right now to get Halladay. Guess that means they have something the Blue Jays would want.

SS Jason Donald, SP Carlos Carrasco, OF Michael Taylor and either SP JA Happ or SP Antonio Bastardo.

Donald is only sitting in the minors because the Phils will be unable to move J-Roll who isn't the same J-Roll from three years ago. Carrasco is easily the gem of the minor league arms and Taylor is drawing comparasions to Ryan Howard and a move to 1B may be imminent. Both Bastardo and Happ have shown they have the stuff to hang in the majors.

Getting Halladay would give the Phils a true number one. I don't care what people say or think, Cole Hamels is NOT the Cole Hamels of LAST YEAR. Line Halladay in front of Hamels-Blanton-Moyer and again you have a horse in the front followed by grinders in Hamels and Blanton and the ageless wonder Jamie Moyer.

Mets

Oh the New York Muts, New York Mess, whatever you'd like to call them at this moment. No one could use Halladay more than the Metropolitans. They've got the pieces to do it.

OF Fernando Martinez, SP/RP Bobby Parnell, SP Jon Niese and 1B Ike Davis.

Interesting group. Martinez has been so-so in the majors thus far and hurting his stock in the process. Parnell has proved time and time again so far that he has the stuff to be a big time arm in the majors. Same goes for Niese who's been above average in the spot starts that he's made for the Mets. Ike Davis is a legit threat to hit 35 homeruns year in and year out.

This is a no brainer. Halladay-Johan would be pitching on three days rest. And no, I'm not kidding.

Cardinals

Clearly my darkhorse for the Halladay sweepstakes. By far not only the classiest organization in baseball but also a great and highly respectable fan base. Outside of that, they also have whatever it would take to get Halladay. Question becomes, are they willing to give up that much?

OF Colby Rasmus, 3B Brett Wallace, C Bryan Anderson, SP Jaime Garcia and SP Jason Motte.

This scenario involves keeping Adam Wainwright out of the equation. Card's management already labeled him along with Albert Pujols and Chris Carpenter as "untouchables."

The top five prospects in the Cards system. Yes it would depleat them long term, but if they could sign Halladay to a four year extension, it would be more than worth it. Rasmus is showing why he's in the majors, Wallace is waiting for Troy Glaus to go so he can officially take over. Anderson, Garcia and Motte all figure to be apart of the Cards equation by no later than 2011.

Halladay-Carpenter-Wainwright would give the Card's a 3-4 year window to dominate the NL Central.

Cubs

Oh let me be frank; Cubs could get him Sabathia, Lincecum and whomever and they still won't win the World Series. Well...not so sure about that one.

SP Randy Wells, SP Rich Harden, 3B Josh Vitters, 1B/OF Jake Fox.

Fox is a power threat but I think he's Elrubio Durazo 2.0 (another throwback name for everyone). Wells is a young arm with a HUGE upside. Same goes for Vitters with his bat. Here's a odd one in though; Rich Harden. Harden is of Canadien descent and would love a chance at home. Problem is, he's from Victoria in British Columbia....the other side of Canada. If they can workout an extension for him it would be a win. If they let him walk as a Class A free agent this offseason, its an even bigger win for the Jays.

Halladay-Zambrano-Lily-Dempster would form a nice quartet. The Cubs are out of the race this year, but this would be an excellent start for the next season.

Yankees

Oh how can a rumor mill surronding a big star be a rumor mill without involving the good ol' Yanks. As weird as this sounds compared to years passed, the Yanks have prospects to make a deal happen.

SP Phil Hughes, SP Joba Chamberlin, OF Austin Jackson.

Again the case of three. Not only are Hughes and Chamberlin struttin' their stuff in the majors, they're doing it decently; nothing a little age and bumps won't teach them. Austin Jackson commonly known as A-Jax is the 35th best prospect in all of baseball. That speaks for itself. Has the potential to be a combination of both Upton brothers.

Sabathia-Halladay-Burnett-Pettite-Wang. Shouldn't really have to worry about number five, when you have two workhorses up front.

Final Thought: If the Sox want him, they can get him. It's that simple. My favorites to land him are the Sox, Yanks and Phils in that order. Dark Horse looming though: St. Louis.

It'll be interesting few weeks coming up. If Halladay isn't moved by then, expect him to be on every team's Christmas wishlist during the Fall meetings.

Has Dice-K's Arm Ran Up Too Much Mileage?

by Puneet Singh

Let's face it; The World Baseball Classic is a cancer to any pitcher who goes out there. Jake Peavy, Armando Gallaraga, Oliver Perez and Edison Volquez are among some of the big name pitchers who are having a troublesome 2009 after having pitched in the WBC earlier this spring.

But no matter who's having the worst season one pitcher trumps them all: Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Dice-K looks tired and depleted; something along the lines of just flat out done. Worst part is it's not even July yet. That's a cause for concern not only Red Sox nation but the MLB office. When a big name pitcher of your league is coming back from a semi meaningless tournament as damaged goods because his national team managed decided to push him and his arm like this was Game 7 of the World Series in February/March then there is a problem.

Part blame goes to the Japanese baseball manager. Majority goes to Dice-K.

Knowing that your biggest responsibility is to the Red Sox and not a national team, he should have spoken to his manager about taking less innings or a lighter work load. What did Dice-K opt for? Put it all on me, and let me carry you. While this is helpful for Japan, can he now be able to say this to Terry Francona come October? Hell we don't even know if he could be on the October playoff roster, given how fatigued his arm is.

Take a look at Matsuzaka's record and effectiveness in the majors:

2007: 15-12 with a 4.40 era in 204 2/3 IP
2008: 18-3 with a 2.90 era in 167 2/3 IP.

Notice the trend? Less innings means a more effective Dice-K. This year he is 1-5 with an 8.23 era over 35 IP. Clearly the innings from the WBC have hindered his production this year.

A healthy Dice-K mixed with Beckett, Lester, Wakefield and whomever out of Penny, Smoltz or either Masterson and Bucholz makes this rotation top quality. But suddenly take out a HEALTHY Dice-K. You know have Beckett as a number one, Lester forced into the two, Wakefield three and then there is more pressure if the two young arms of Masterson or Bucholz have to pitch or try their luck with Smoltz or Penny; both of whom look beat.

A well rested, fresh Daisuke Matsuzaka means a healthy chance at another WS title for the SAWX. But Dice-K not being there makes matters a lot more complicated. I'm not saying the Sox won't win the WS, but what I AM saying is that the road there without Matsuzaka is gonna be a lot more bumpy.

The Big Fall for Big Papi

by Puneet Singh


What if I told you that a baseball player who is highly regarded and considered an elite player was hitting .197 with 2 HRs and 22 RBIs, what would you do with him? Let me go into more detail. What if you’re a GM or Coach of a prestigious baseball franchise and this player is the HEART, SOUL and BACKBONE of your team and fan base. What would you do? Can you bench him, demote him or shockingly enough, can you cut him?

Well, welcome to Sox nation where you now play the role as Theo Epstein and Terry Francona.

Let me see the best way I can compare this: The Ortiz Dilemma is similar to that of a family with an ailing dog; you don’t know what to do with any longer, but at the same time you can’t get rid of it because you don’t want to upset the kids(Sox Nation).

Ortiz is having a nightmare season. That has been established. How bad is the real question. Ortiz in on pace to hit 6 hrs and 67 rbis. You know who puts up those type of numbers? Catchers, 2nd Basemen and Shortstops. NOT 1B/DH’s. I could see Luis Castillo or Chris Coste having those numbers. Not David Ortiz. Not Big Papi, the lord and savior of the Sox.

Papi’s fall from Grace has been an ugly one, topped only by Courtney Love after Kurt Cobain blew his brains out. (RIP Kurt, I love you and thanks for the great music, you’re the f****n man).
But yeah, it’s really THAT BAD.

So what’s the reason behind all this madness?

Until evidence is released I will not tie Ortiz to steroids. But if there is, oh boy I will run off with it like a reporter for the National Enquirer.
For the timebeing however, I will say this: Ortiz’s success was 90% due to Manny Ramirez. Why? Because it’s the truth. Manny Ramirez makes everyone around him better. I’d stay here and argue all the steroids of Manny and that whole schpele with you, but I’ll save that for another time(sidenote: I’m a HUGE Manny Ramirez fan so it really doesn’t matter what you say about him). Fact of the matter is, Ortiz thrived playing in a lineup with Manny. Manny’s gone = Papi’s numbers take a slight dip.

But that’s not all. The single most and main reason Papi started hitting like a middle infielder? He’s gotten old. It’s that thing where your age increases and certain abilities of yours decrease and tasks become harder. In this case, it’s Ortiz’s bat speed and pitch recognition. It’s why he looks like an average little leaguer going against a Danny Almonte during the 2001 little league World Series.

This story for Ortiz is a sad one. Once considered a hero and icon, he still holds those titles. Yet the actions that came with it are somewhat missing. Yes he’s still that loveable big guy in the clubhouse. But at the same time, he no longer packs the punch in the bat that he used to. The clutch hits are gone, as are the towering homeruns. Whether he needs the mental checkup, some time off or just an eye exam, he has to get things sorted out. Because whether people believe it or not, come September Boston’s playoff hopes rest squarely on that man’s broad shoulders.