Has Dice-K's Arm Ran Up Too Much Mileage?

by Puneet Singh

Let's face it; The World Baseball Classic is a cancer to any pitcher who goes out there. Jake Peavy, Armando Gallaraga, Oliver Perez and Edison Volquez are among some of the big name pitchers who are having a troublesome 2009 after having pitched in the WBC earlier this spring.

But no matter who's having the worst season one pitcher trumps them all: Daisuke Matsuzaka.

Dice-K looks tired and depleted; something along the lines of just flat out done. Worst part is it's not even July yet. That's a cause for concern not only Red Sox nation but the MLB office. When a big name pitcher of your league is coming back from a semi meaningless tournament as damaged goods because his national team managed decided to push him and his arm like this was Game 7 of the World Series in February/March then there is a problem.

Part blame goes to the Japanese baseball manager. Majority goes to Dice-K.

Knowing that your biggest responsibility is to the Red Sox and not a national team, he should have spoken to his manager about taking less innings or a lighter work load. What did Dice-K opt for? Put it all on me, and let me carry you. While this is helpful for Japan, can he now be able to say this to Terry Francona come October? Hell we don't even know if he could be on the October playoff roster, given how fatigued his arm is.

Take a look at Matsuzaka's record and effectiveness in the majors:

2007: 15-12 with a 4.40 era in 204 2/3 IP
2008: 18-3 with a 2.90 era in 167 2/3 IP.

Notice the trend? Less innings means a more effective Dice-K. This year he is 1-5 with an 8.23 era over 35 IP. Clearly the innings from the WBC have hindered his production this year.

A healthy Dice-K mixed with Beckett, Lester, Wakefield and whomever out of Penny, Smoltz or either Masterson and Bucholz makes this rotation top quality. But suddenly take out a HEALTHY Dice-K. You know have Beckett as a number one, Lester forced into the two, Wakefield three and then there is more pressure if the two young arms of Masterson or Bucholz have to pitch or try their luck with Smoltz or Penny; both of whom look beat.

A well rested, fresh Daisuke Matsuzaka means a healthy chance at another WS title for the SAWX. But Dice-K not being there makes matters a lot more complicated. I'm not saying the Sox won't win the WS, but what I AM saying is that the road there without Matsuzaka is gonna be a lot more bumpy.