Saturday, July 31, 2010

The MLB Trade Deadline: Ruben Amaro Jr., Super Dummy


Charles Klein

Perhaps what I like to do the most on this blog is to clear up misconceptions in the manner in which sports is understood and analyzed by the pundits. The Major League Baseball trade deadline provides plenty of fodder for such articles, which I only take so much joy in writing.

The biggest myth I would like to bust is the idea that Ruben Amaro Jr. is a good general manager. People were over the moon about the Phillies head man last year when he opted to trade for Cliff Lee and did not have to give up any of the Phillies top prospects in the process. I gave the move my approval at this time last year. Damn good deal.

However he gave away all of the positive momentum he gained in the Lee deal last December when he dealt Lee to the Seattle Mariners for three decent but not overwhelmingly good prospects after completing a deal with the Blue Jays for Roy Halladay. The debate over who is the best pitcher in baseball (it's really just between Lee, Johnson and Halladay) will be saved for another article. But one is not taking a definitive step up with replacing Lee with Halladay.

To Amaro's surprise, he found that by midseason the Phillies were in desperate need of a number two starter to slot in behind Halladay in their rotation. Cole Hamels was supposed to be that guy. He has been decent but nowhere near as dominant has he was the season in which the Phillies won the World Series. J.A. Happ was supposed to take the next step this season but was under utilized and ultimately traded to the Houston Astros as a part of the Roy Oswalt trade.

Speaking of that Oswalt bloke, Amaro has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he in actuality has very little clue of what he's doing. The success of the Phillies has more to do with Pat Gillick than anything Amaro has had a role in doing. If he had any skill as a general manager he would have realized that keeping Lee would have been the better option for two reasons:

  1. Cliff Lee is a better pitcher than Roy Oswalt. Lee ought to win the Cy Young Award in the American League. He leads the AL in ERA and has thrown almost as many innings as Halladay this season. His strikeout-to-walk ratio alone ought to win him the award.
  2. Cliff Lee costs less than Roy Oswalt. Lee is in the final year of the contract he signed with the Indians in which he is due a meager nine million dollars. Chump change when one is talking about a Cy Young caliber pitcher. Having him at that price is like getting away with murder. Oswalt is due $16 million next season as part of a player option given to him by the Astros. Even if Oswalt pitches well he still leaves the team on the hook for an exorbitant sum that ought only be paid to much younger players. The Astros will be paying for part of it, but even then Lee remains the cheaper option.

The Seattle Mariners general manager Jack Zduriencik showed up Amaro by trading Lee for a much better set of prospects to the Texas Rangers. One would assume that Amaro ought to have done better considering the Mariners had the opportunity to have Lee for a whole year and the Rangers would only have him for around four months. But that was not the case. The Mariners got a great set of prospects in the deal, including Justin Smoak, who has been projected to be a Mark Teixeira type first baseman. I can safely guarantee you that he will be a better professional than any of the prospects the Mariners sent to Philadelphia last December.

And I know there will be those who will read this and say "Well the Phillies would not have been able to re-sign him at the end of the season so Amaro did well to get something for him." To that I would offer keeping Cliff Lee and the prospects dealt to the Astros for Oswalt presents a much healthier long term outlook for an organization. Let's be real, the Phillies took one step forward and two steps back with the two deals they made involving ace pitchers. It may help them catch the Braves and give them a shot at getting to the World Series for the third consecutive season (surely the city of Philadelphia will explode if it experiences even more success in the sporting world), but in five years the Phillies may end up regretting ever saying goodbye to Cliff Lee.

Who knows, maybe the Phillies will pay the Mariners seven million dollars and trade them Roy Oswalt in return for some more average prospects in December. I do not think Zduriencik would mind that one jot.

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