Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Africa's cup?

Nuwan Peiris

If you say it enough, does it make it true? African football fans will certainly hope so, as Shakira's World Cup anthem "Waka Waka (this time for Africa)" rings around South Africa's stadiums before the matches. South Africa's winning bid to host the World Cup is already a massive victory, not just for the Rainbow Nation, but for the African continent as a whole. This is Africa's biggest sporting showpiece to date, at least to my knowledge, and hopefully the first of many.

However is this really Africa's time? With a record six nations representing CAF this tournament, fans would certainly hope so.

So let's look at the chances of the African nations.

South Africa

What better place to start than with this year's hosts? All the pressure is certainly on Bafana Bafana. No host nation has ever failed to move on from the group stages. 19 hosts in the group stages (18 World Cups, 19 hosts. 1000 points if you figure that one out without Google), 19 hosts who progressed to the knockout stages. This year's hosts certainly don't want the dubious honour of the nation that breaks that trend, but they are widely considered as the weakest of the nations representing Africa, largely owing to the fact that they didn't have to earn their spot through qualifying.
South Africa however have shown some excellent form coming into the tournament, going unbeaten for their last 12 matches, stretching back to October of last year when they lost by a single goal away to Iceland.
Furthermore they face a group of good, but not great teams, in the shape of France (probable group winners), Uruguay and Mexico. This is by no means easy passage for the hosts, but it is also no group of death and they can be hopeful of progressing.
This combined with the boisterous, Vuvuzela-toting crowds, could see the hosts through allowing them to avoid an embarrassing place in football's history books.

Likely 2nd round match up: Argentina

Verdict: It will definitely go down to the wire in this evenly matched group, and I think the potential for embarrassment and the home town support will go a long way in helping the hosts progress behind France. They won't go any further than the 2nd round.

Nigeria

The Super Eagles are in a group with potential cup winners Argentina, so they'll be vying for 2nd place against South Korea and the defensive minded Greeks. Unless Nigeria bring back their heroics of the 1996 Olympic games when they beat Argentina to win the gold medal, they'll have to rely on results against the other group foes to progress. The loss of John Obi Mikel certainly hurts their chances, but don't be surprised to see Nigeria progress from this group.

Likely 2nd round match up: France

Verdict: As long as the Super Eagles progress from their group, which I think they will, they won't be too disappointed with playing France in the 2nd round. Don't get me wrong, the French are a good side, but it's hardly the worst match up the Nigerians could get. I'm still leaning towards Nigeria being knocked out at this stage.

Algeria

Les Fennecs give South Africa a challenge for worst African nation in the tournament and will struggle to make it out of their group. The North Africans did well to keep African champions Egypt out of the tournament, but they wouldn't have been thrilled to have drawn contenders England in their group, nor the United States. Slovenia complete the group of opponents for the Algerians, and may provide the likeliest source of points. I wouldn't totally rule them out, playmaker Ziani could cause problems for other teams, as long as the other ten men on the pitch can get him the ball.

Likely 2nd round match up: Germany

Verdict: Algeria won't be good enough to get out of this group, they'll do well to get a point.

Ghana

While the Black Stars gave Africa their best showing in the last World Cup, it will be tough to pull together a similar string of inspired performances again. Their chances took a big blow with the loss of their masterful midfielder, Michael Essien. As far as opponents go, Ghana face a fairly formidable trio. Germany are perennial over-achievers in the World Cup, and this year should be no different. Serbia provide as solid a defense as any in the tournament, Ghana will be looking to catch them off guard in the first group game. They then go on to play the Socceroos, who will be their best chance at gaining points. Hopefully for their sake they would have racked up enough points by June 23rd, or they'll have to pull off a surprise against the Germans.

Likely 2nd round match up: England

Verdict: Close call between Ghana and Serbia to clinch 2nd place, and I don't think the Ghanaians will make it.

Cameroon

Africa's most experienced team (in terms of appearances in the World Cup) had to wait till the final day of qualification to book their spot in the tournament. They recovered from a poor start in qualification, to make it through, and will look to continue their good form in the group stages. They're up against the Oranje (Holland), Denmark and Japan. None of these will be easy games for the Indomitable Lions, but they'll look to striker Samuel Eto'o to take a leaf out of Cameroonian legend Roger Milla's book, and lead them deep into the tournament.
The Dutch obviously pose the toughest challenge in this group, and if Cameroon can sneak a point against them it will go a long way to helping them progress. Like Ghana, they'll look to get two good results against weaker foes (Denmark and Japan) before they face the Dutch in their final group game. Cameroonian fans will fancy their chances to follow the Dutch through to the 2nd round.

Likely 2nd round match up: Italy

Verdict: Cameroon will make it out of their group, and I don't think the defending champions are as powerful as they were when they lifted the trophy four years ago. I am incredibly biased, as to me they were undeserving winners anyway, but that's another blog entry. Cameroon and Senegal are the only African teams to have progressed as far as the quarter finals in the World Cup, and if I'm seeing a shock in the 2nd round for any African teams, it's with Cameroon toppling Italy to repeat their glory of 1990.

Cote d'Ivoire

Didier Drogba, the man on whom this nation's hopes hung, will be lucky to see a game in this tournament. They still have a few very capable players, and can't totally be ruled out in Drogba's absence. Still, a few weeks ago they would have been my top pick for African success in this tournament, and have fallen far since Drogba's injury. The prolific striker would have caused serious trouble for group opponents North Korea, Portugal and perhaps even Brazil. The Ivorians face the two tougher opponents first, and if they can steal a win against Portugal, they can certainly feel good going into their final game against North Korea. I really think the race for 2nd place in this group hinges on that first game between Portugal and Cote d'Ivoire.

Likely 2nd round match up: Spain

Verdict: Injured superstar + first round group opponents Brazil and Portugal + a likely match up against Spain if they progress = a tough outlook for the West Africans. I think they will make it out of their group, but not past Spain.

So that's my predictions for African hopefuls over the next month. Algeria to fall early along with Ghana. South Africa, Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire and Cameroon will all make it through to the 2nd round, but will all face tough opponents there. Cameroon will have the best chance of getting any further.

Hardly looking like Africa's time, which is a shame given high hopes after qualification. Having said that, hopefully there will be a great amount of solidarity among traveling African fans, hopefully enough to inspire a big upset or two. That would make this tournament a memorable one for the host continent. 

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