Charles Klein
Even after a rather unconvincing performance from the Azzurri this afternoon, Group F is still their's to win (or lose). Football is a bloody unpredictable sport and teams like Paraguay on their day can be equals with a defending world champion. This is another group that is quite off-kilter. Only one team here is really even worth the time writing about (Italy) and the other three are also-rans or lucky-to-be-here types.
More questions will certainly be asked of the Azzurri in the aftermath of their draw with Paraguay. Does manager Marcello Lippi have the right group of players to defend their title? Are the Italians too old in key areas to challenge the best sides in the competition?
Today's match was one that ought to give even greater momentum to the theory that Italy are just too old to seriously challenge this year. Although Lippi's starting XI today only featured three players who were a part of the 2006 world championship, the new blood brought in to freshen up a side that looked well beyond their best days in Euro 2008 did very little to change the perception of this team. Italy are, however, a great tournament team, they always have been and probably always will be. Their style of play is not as easy on the eyes as some of the other teams in this tournament, but it has served them very well in the past.
I still expect them to top this group because of the right combination of experience and superior skill. Daniele De Rossi is an outstanding central midfield player and Gianluigi Buffon remains one of the best keepers in world football. However, the loss of Andrea Pirlo at least for the immediate future appears to be a blow to Italian hopes. There is no other player like him on the 23 man roster. Italy need his creativity and attacking nous in the middle of the park if they are to play well against the Brazil's, Spains and Germanys of this competition. Still, even though Buffon's hamstring injury is a worry, Lippi is talented enough as a manager to find a way to win. It's just what the Italians do.
In spite of the match already played today, I still stand by my pick of Slovakia to advance to the next round behind Italy. An underrated bunch from a country better known for its hockey than its football, Slovakia might sneak up on a few people this year. They do have a few star players including Napoli's Marek Hamsik and Liverpool's Martin Skrtel. Slovakia are certainly an unpopular pick (with many going with Paraguay to advance) but one I feel comfortable with. Regardless of who advances second out of this group, they will almost certainly not advance beyond the second round.
Paraguay were rather unlucky to concede against Italy today. Having gone ahead six minutes before the end of the first half, they were really one better decision by a goalkeeper away from taking all three points from an underwhelming Azzuri. The big question marks remain for Paraguay, the biggest one, not only in terms of import but also in size is the fitness of Roque Santa Cruz. La Albirroja need him to be fit for them to advance out of this group. On the evidence so far, there is not much cause for encouragement.
Finally there is New Zealand. And they, perhaps almost more than any other team in the cup, should be the happiest to have qualified for South Africa. Like the geek invited to the frat party, New Zealand will have no idea what to do when they actually play their first match. Beneficiaries of Australia's move to Asia for world cup qualifying, the All Whites had a very easy time of it indeed. Their inclusion in this tournament ought to be a cause for wonder when other sides like Croatia, Turkey, Ireland and Russia all remain out. That being said, it will be a great three days for New Zealand because unlike the other happy-to-be-there side in this tournament (North Korea) they do not have to play Brazil, Ivory Coast and Portugal.
Predicted XI's
Italia
GK: Gianluigi Buffon
DEF: Gianluca Zambrotta, Fabio Cannavaro (C), Giorgio Chiellni, Fabio Grosso
MF: Mauro Camoranesi, Daniele De Rossi, Claudio Marchisio, Andrea Pirlo (when healthy)
ST: Antonio Di Natale (when healthy), Alberto Gilardino
Slovakia
GK: Jan Mucha
DEF: Peter Pekarik, Martin Skrtel, Jan Durica, Radoslav Zabavnik
MF: Vladimir Weiss, Miroslav Karhan, Marek Hamsik, Miroslav Stoch
ST: Robert Vittek, Stanislav Sestak
Paraguay
GK: Justo Villar
DEF: Dario Veron, Julio Cesar Caceres, Paulo Da Silva, Aureliano Torres (C)
MF: Jonathan Santana, Edgar Barreto, Christian Rivieros,
ST: Roque Santa Cruz (when healthy), Nelson Haedo
New Zealand
GK: Mark Paston
DEF: Ben Sigmund, Ivan Vicelich, Ryan Nelson (C), Tony Lochhead
MF: Tim Brown, Simon Elliott, Leo Bertos, Shane Smeltz
ST: Chris Killen, Rory Fallon
Players To Watch: Daniele De Rossi (Italia), Andrea Pirlo (Italia), Gianluigi Buffon (Italia), Fabio Cannavaro (Italia), Marek Hamsik (Slovakia), Stanislav Sestak (Slovakia), Roque Santa Cruz (Paraguay), Julio Cesar Caceres (Paraguay), Chris Killen (New Zealand), Shane Smeltz (New Zealand).
1. Italy
2. Slovakia
3. Paraguay
4. New Zealand
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