Phil Fortuna
1. Los Angeles Lakers
8. Oklahoma City Thunder
This is the series I’m the most excited for in the first round. The defending NBA Champions versus a team that just won 23 games last season. You have Kobe “Black Mamba” Bryant versus Kevin “Durantula” Durant. Last but not least the ever popular factor of experience versus youth. The Oklahoma City Thunder is the youngest team in the NBA, Durant at 21 is the youngest ever to average at least 30 points per game. Not to mention the rest of their lineup, Westbrook is 21, Green is 23, Sefolosha is 25 and Kristic is 26. Their best bench players James Harden and Eric Maynor are both rookies. Despite the Lakers recent struggles and concerns it would still seem a lock for the Lakers to run over this young Thunder team. This is a team who went from 23 wins last season to 50 wins this season with the only major roster changes being drafting James Harden and trading for rookie Eric Maynor. Durant has gone for 30 plus points over 40 times this season and has scored at least 25 points 73 times as well. What this means is that Ron Artest and Lamar Odom will have their hands full. Ron Artest isn’t the defensive stopper he once was and isn’t quick enough and Odom struggles defending on the perimeter but who else can you put on Durant. Also Kobe is going to have to keep up with Durant in the scoring department. Any other year this wouldn’t even been a concern but Kobe’s injuries really have killed him or he has lost a step. Either way the Lakers success will depend on if Kobe can stop shooting like Iverson and be the deadly assassin he is known to be. Kobe’s shooting percentage the last 4 games is puke worthy .2995% from the field. The Lakers luckily have won the season series at 3 games to 1, although the game they lost was the last time they met March 26th. The Thunder won that game 91 to 75, Kobe almost had a negative double-double with just 11 points and 9 turnovers. If anything the Thunder should have the most confidence heading into this series. For the Lakers they have Gasol who is a low post threat, nobody on the Thunder can defend him due to Gasol’s ability to be crafty around the rim. Andrew Bynum’s status is still unknown which is devastating to the Lakers and their quest to repeat as champions. If Bynum is able to play you have to wonder his impact, in past history when coming back from injury after missing significant playing time he has been ineffective not being able to produce. Let’s say Bynum does return and is effective then the inside presence of Bynum and Gasol will be too overwhelming for the Thunder. With both Gasol and Bynum dominating inside, Kobe doesn’t have to match Durant point for point so he can save his energy. Again this is a BIG IF for the Lakers and I wouldn’t bet on it happening. All the ESPN experts have the Lakers winning in 6 or 7 games except Jalen Rose who says 5 games; I’m going to be rebellious here.
Prediction: Thunder in 7
2. Dallas Mavericks
7. San Antonio Spurs
This matchup will definitely go to 6 or 7 games played. Allow me to share with you something I’ve learned over the past decade and that is never count out Tim Duncan and the Spurs. The four championships they won going into the postseason those years they were not favored but won anyway. When the Spurs are favored they don’t win, weird isn’t it? We all agree and realize that the Spur’s age has finally hit them as Duncan took a step back this season plus the injuries to Ginobili and Parker. Heading into the playoffs this team is finally healthy but will it last? Going into this matchup against Dallas you have to wonder how affective Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will be against Kidd and Caron Butler. I’m not expecting those two guys to be the stars their known to be but I do know there’s no way in hell they’re going to let Dallas run them over. I can see backup point guard George Hill also stepping in and taking over, sounds far-stretched but he’s an excellent player who has no problem stepping up. What also sparks an interest is how will Dallas contain rookie Dejuan Blair? This season Blair became the perfect backup for their aging front court. He has delivered big in many games during his rookie season. That includes two 20/20 games with scoring and rebounding. One of those games was during San Antonio’s last meeting with Dallas. Blair recorded 27 points to go with 23 rebounds and 3 steals while playing 37 minutes. Dallas on the other hand might be too much to handle for the Spurs, Dirk as usual had an MVP type season, Jason Kidd is still an elite level point guard, and Jason Terry is a microwave off the bench not to mention how great the additions of Butler, Haywood and Stevenson have been. Not only is this team dangerous offensively they’ve added guys who can do damage defensively.
Prediction: Dallas in 6
3. Phoenix Suns
6. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland’s loss of Brandon Roy for the series decreases Portland’s chances of advancing tremendously. Bowie over Jordan part 2 is looking uglier and uglier by the year. Had Portland picked Durant instead of Greg Oden then the Roy injury wouldn’t have been as big as a blow. I feel for this franchise, the last 3 seasons have been injury plagued to all their key players but yet have managed to make the playoffs, especially this season finishing with 50 wins. I’m rooting for Portland to overcome another road block but you have to be realistic here. Steve Nash should be on a major decline right now but no he’s not, at 36 years old he put up 17 points a game and 11 dimes. I’m tossing in another wine comment and declare Steve Nash as a bottle of wine. Who does Nash have running up the court at full speed with? He has Amare “STAT” Stoudemire who during the second half of the season has been a human bulldozer!
Prediction: Suns in 5
4. Denver Nuggets
5. Utah Jazz
Utah losing Kirilenko for the next two weeks is a serious blow but it’s not as bad as Denver being without head coach George Karl for the first round. With George Karl’s battle with cancer and his absence from the sidelines it will impact Denver mentally. Will it cause it them to lose the serious? Possibly, to me this is a tough series to call. Utah’s balanced style of offense and defense will result in problems for Denver. At least for Denver Utah isn’t great on either end just good. There is no real go to scorer on Utah, one night Deron Williams will have 25 the next he has 15, the same goes for Boozer who has been cleared to play Sunday. Denver is decent on defense, they have a tendency to give up easy baskets and blow large leads. On the plus side they’re great on offense with go to scorer in Carmelo Anthony and guys such as Chauncey Billups and J.R Smith who are both capable of dropping 30 points when the game is on the line.
Prediction: Nuggets in 6.
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